A部分

The automotive sector is well used to adapting to automation in manufacturing. The implementation of robotic car manufacture from the 1970s onwards led to significant cost savings and improvements in the reliability and flexibility of vehicle mass production. A new challenge to vehicle production is now on the horizon and, again, it comes from automation. However, this time it is not to do with the manufacturing process, but with the vehicles themselves.

Research projects on vehicle automation are not new. Vehicles with limited self-driving capabilities have been around for more than 50 years, resulting in significant contributions towards driver assistance systems. But since Google announced in 2010 that it had been trialling self-driving cars on the streets of California, progress in this field has quickly gathered pace.

B部分

There are many reasons why technology is advancing so fast. One frequently cited motive is safety; indeed, research at the UK’s Transport Research Laboratory has demonstrated that more than 90 percent of road collisions involve human error as a contributory factor, and it is the primary cause in the vast majority. Automation may help to reduce the incidence of this.

Another aim is to free the time people spend driving for other purposes. If the vehicle can do some or all of the driving, it may be possible to be productive, to socialise or simply to relax while automation systems have responsibility for safe control of the vehicle. If the vehicle can do the driving, those who are challenged by existing mobility models – such as older or disabled travellers – may be able to enjoy significantly greater travel autonomy.

C部分

Beyond these direct benefits, we can consider the wider implications for transport and society, and how manufacturing processes might need to respond as a result. At present, the average car spends more than 90 percent of its life parked. Automation means that initiatives for car-sharing become much more viable, particularly in urban areas with significant travel demand. If a significant proportion of the population choose to use shared automated vehicles, mobility demand can be met by far fewer vehicles.

D部分

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology investigated automated mobility in Singapore, finding that fewer than 30 percent of the vehicles currently used would be required if fully automated car sharing could be implemented. If this is the case, it might mean that we need to manufacture far fewer vehicles to meet demand.

However, the number of trips being taken would probably increase, partly because empty vehicles would have to be moved from one customer to the next.

Modelling work by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute suggests automated vehicles might reduce vehicle ownership by 43 percent, but that vehicles’ average annual mileage would double as a result. As a consequence, each vehicle would be used more intensively, and might need replacing sooner. This faster rate of turnover may mean that vehicle production will not necessarily decrease.

E部分

Automation may prompt other changes in vehicle manufacture. If we move to a model where consumers are tending not to own a single vehicle but to purchase access to a range of vehicles through a mobility provider, drivers will have the freedom to select one that best suits their needs for a particular journey, rather than making a compromise across all their requirements.

Since, for most of the time, most of the seats in most cars are unoccupied, this may boost production of a smaller, more efficient range of vehicles that suit the needs of individuals. Specialised vehicles may then be available for exceptional journeys, such as going on a family camping trip or helping a son or daughter move to university.

F部分

There are a number of hurdles to overcome in delivering automated vehicles to our roads. These include the technical difficulties in ensuring that the vehicle works reliably in the infinite range of traffic, weather and road situations it might encounter; the regulatory challenges in understanding how liability and enforcement might change when drivers are no longer essential for vehicle operation; and the societal changes that may be required for communities to trust and accept automated vehicles as being a valuable part of the mobility landscape.

G部分

It’s clear that there are many challenges that need to be addressed but, through robust and targeted research, these can most probably be conquered within the next 10 years. Mobility will change in such potentially significant ways and in association with so many other technological developments, such as telepresence and virtual reality, that it is hard to make concrete predictions about the future. However, one thing is certain: change is coming, and the need to be flexible in response to this will be vital for those involved in manufacturing the vehicles that will deliver future mobility.

汽车行业对制造自动化进行适应已经习以为常。自从20世纪70年代开始实施机器人汽车制造以来，显著降低成本，提高了车辆大规模生产的可靠性和灵活性。现在，车辆生产面临的新挑战再次来自自动化。然而，这一次与制造过程无关，而是与车辆本身有关。

车辆自动化的研究项目并不是新鲜事物。具有有限自动驾驶能力的车辆已经存在了50多年，对驾驶员辅助系统做出了重要贡献。但自从谷歌在2010年宣布正在加利福尼亚街头试验自动驾驶汽车以来，这一领域的进展迅速加快。

技术快速发展的原因有很多。一个经常被提到的动机是安全性；的确，英国交通研究实验室的研究表明，超过90%的道路碰撞事故涉及人为错误作为一个因素，并且在绝大多数情况下是主要原因。自动化可能有助于减少这种事故的发生。

另一个目标是让人们在驾驶的时间里做其他事情。如果车辆能够完成部分或全部驾驶工作，人们可能有机会在车辆安全控制的责任交由自动化系统时进行工作、社交或仅仅是放松。如果车辆能够驾驶，那些受现有移动模式限制的人，如年长者或残疾旅行者，可能会获得更大的出行自主权。

除了这些直接的好处，我们还可以考虑对交通和社会的更广泛影响，以及制造过程可能需要如何应对。目前，平均每辆汽车有超过90%的时间都是停在那里。自动化意味着共享汽车计划在需求量大的城市地区变得更加可行。如果有相当比例的人选择使用共享自动化车辆，需求量可以通过更少的车辆得到满足。

麻省理工学院研究了新加坡的自动化出行，发现如果完全实施共享自动化汽车，目前使用的车辆数量将不到30%。如果是这样的话，可能意味着我们需要制造较少的汽车来满足需求。

然而，乘车次数可能会增加，部分原因是需要将空车从一个客户处移动到下一个客户处。

密歇根大学交通研究所的建模工作表明，自动驾驶汽车可能会减少43%的车辆拥有量，但每辆车的年平均里程数可能会翻倍。因此，每辆车的使用强度会增加，可能需要更早更换。这种更快的更换速度可能意味着车辆生产不一定会减少。

自动化可能会引发车辆制造方面的其他变化。如果我们转向一种模式，消费者不再拥有单一车辆，而是通过移动服务提供商购买多种车辆的使用权，驾驶员可以根据特定行程的需求选择最合适的车辆，而不是在所有需求之间做出妥协。

由于大部分时间，大部分车辆上的座位都是空置的，这可能会增加生产更小、更高效的车辆的需求，以满足个人需求。专门的车辆可能会用于特殊行程，如家庭露营或帮助儿子或女儿搬到大学。

在将自动驾驶车辆引入道路上仍然存在许多障碍。这些包括确保车辆在各种交通、天气和道路环境中可靠运行的技术困难；在驾驶员不再是车辆操作的必需品时，理解责任和执法可能如何改变的监管挑战；以及社会改变可能需要社区信任和接受自动驾驶车辆作为移动景观中有价值的一部分。

很明显，还有许多需要解决的挑战，但通过有力而有针对性的研究，这些问题很可能在未来10年内得到解决。移动方式可能以如此重大的方式发生变化，并与诸多其他技术发展，如远程会议和虚拟现实等相结合，以至于很难对未来做出确切的预测。然而，有一点是确定的：变革正在到来，对于参与制造未来移动的车辆的人来说，灵活应对这一变革的需求将至关重要。